Ed Soehnel

I spent 3 days at the Sheraton Wild Horse Resort in Chandler, AZ for our semi-annual Vitamin and Adult Nutrition trade show.  Nice resort, but did not get the chance to enjoy it much, as meetings go all day and then there is evening dinner, entertainment with work associates and more work.  Temperature was over 110 degrees, so it was nice being inside, although I enjoy hot weather.  First night there we encountered a lightening storm at 11 pm and it knocked out power to the entire hotel.  I was getting to sleep anyway.  It came back on at some point in the night.  Images below of the hotel and our suite where we had retailer meetings.

Last two weeks of January included lots of work travel. I was only able to squeeze in one ride from home on January 19:

Conditions: Sunny and warm. 10 C / 50 F
Difficulty: Easy
Time: 45 minutes
Avg. Speed: 9.75 mph
Bike: Mountain
Device: Garmin Forerunner 205

Notes: Had a flight out later that day for Atlanta, so left work early. Beautiful January day with lots of sunshine and warmth.

View in Google Earth (KMZ File)

Bike - View in Google Maps






My travels took me first to Atlanta for a 3-day trade show that included 20 minute meetings with 50 retailers. The very next week, I had a similar trade show in Nashville that included 20 minute meetings with 45 retailers. Pretty grueling weeks with all the meeting and the weeks following these events are also rather busy with all the follow-up required. Both Atlanta and Nashville were cold with wintery weather more comparable to that we find in Denver than the southeast of the U.S. Did not bother me, as I spent the entire 3 days of each trip in the hotel.

Images from our plane ride to and from Atlanta are below. We flew private out of Centennial on a Gulfstream/Astra 100. Smooth flight up till Landing in Atlanta; winds were gusting and swirling, so while it made for an interesting landing in a small plane, we got down plenty fine.

From 2009_01_22_Atlanta_ECRM

I did most of the Nashville trade show myself, so flew out commercial. Flight was late getting out of Denver, but we had a monster tail wind (ground speed of 640 mph), so made up a little time. Coming back, flight late again, and we had a brutal head wind, so it was a long flight back to Denver. A few images of the hotel room in Nashville where we had our meetings are below. The trade show cleared out a hotel room for us and we setup with our product samples and poster. Every 20 minutes, a new retailer walks in for a face-to-face meeting.



From 2009_01_26_Nashville_ECRM

My flight routes for both trips is below.

View Atlanta Trip in Google Earth (KMZ File)

Atlanta Flights - View in Google Maps




View Nashville Trip in Google Earth (KMZ File)

Nashville Flights - View in Google Maps

We created a 2009 sales forecast by month for our main product. This forecast took about 4 weeks to complete, as we had many discussions and iterations before arriving at a plan that we felt was aggressive, but attainable and realistic. The Plan rolls up each retail account that we have or expect to attain.  At a granular level, each account has weekly sales plotted out for the year.  After adding up all accounts, one monthly sales figure is plotted out in one row, with each column representing the month, and an end-column that sums up the months to reveal our goal for the year. We save the Plan spreadsheet and it is set in stone and does not change.  It represents our goals for the year.

We copy The Plan spreadsheet and name it “Forecast”.   It changes weekly, if not daily, based on new information that we learn on each retail account.  Since we created the spreadsheet to track weekly by retail account, we can make very detailed changes as needed.  Like the Plan spreadsheet, it adds up all accounts and plots one monthly sales figure in one row, with each column representing the month, and an end-column that sums up the months to reveal the year-end number.

Next, we compare in real-time the variance between our Plan and Forecast. For example, if January Plan was 100,000, but forecast is only 80,000 (which changed based on new information that has come in since the Plan was set), we have a deficit of 20,000 for the month. The importance of knowing this is not necessarily that we have a deficit in January, because often we cannot make changes in a month to make up for the deficit. We see a deficit of 20,000 against our year-end number. Knowing this now allows us to figure out how to make up for the 20,000 deficit as the year rolls on.

We also have a third row, “Actual”, which is real sales numbers that happened. Our Forecast and Actual should be fairly close because forecast is being adjusted constantly based on new information, including past sales.

The Plan and Forecast are sales and revenue focused, not profitability focused.  Therefore, all sales/revenue functions of the organization affect the Plan and Forecast, so if we are not meeting goals set forth in the Plan, as indicated in the Forecast and Actual, we analyze our activities to determine what the problem may be and what we need to do about it.  A few basic examples:

• Is the sales team to retail accounts being proactive and aggressive in facilitating the placement of our products onto retail shelves?
• Is marketing maximizing the brand awareness of the products through effective use of media channels so that the product sells at retail?
• Is R&D on schedule to produce the next product that marketing and sales can use to continue growth.
• Is operations meeting production quotas as required to ensure that there is available product to sell and retail accounts do not fall into back-order situations?

The Plan and Forecast and the analysis from the variances guide us into doing the things to help keep us on plan and meet our year-end sales and revenue goals.

2008 was our first full year as a company (started December 2007).  We utilized direct response as our main engine for marketing and sales and pushed into retail in the latter half of the year. Our core product has proven itself and we are moving into becoming a company with a recognized brand. 2009 will be about maximizing our retail footprint for our core product, introducing additional products and focusing on profits.  Our CEO provided us with overarching qualitative guidance for 2009 to help steer our efforts.  They are as follows (sanitized so that they do not reveal anything that might be considered confidential):

1. Maximize direct channel revenue by optimizing our web and call center offers, up-sells, continuity program and through outbound calls/emails/snail mail to past customers to generate repeat orders.

2. Drive costs out of all systems:

A.  Push all suppliers to show us where we’re overpaying for anything;

B.  Develop “today” vs. “tomorrow” scenarios and drive hard for tomorrow;

C.  Eliminate complexity, create flexible and powerful processes;

D.  Figure out how to run a business multiple times larger than we are now with current staff;

3.  Create a new product pipeline that’s bursting with innovation.  Speed must be weeks, not months.

4.  Be impatient. What are we waiting for?

5. Sell our retail customers the way they want to be sold in a way that’s mutually beneficial. And, be easy to work with so that our customers find it a joy to be doing business with us.

6.  Continue to learn from the outside world …customer, suppliers, competitors …embrance “not invented here” as a path to success.